model{ for(i in 1:N){ logw[i]~dnorm(mu[i],tausq) mu[i]<-(gamma[1] + beta[1,year[i]]) + (gamma[2] + beta[2,year[i]]) * (age[i] - age.bar) + (gamma[3] + beta[3,year[i]]) * (gender[i] - gender.bar) + (gamma[4] + beta[4,year[i]]) * (educ[i] - educ.bar) + theta[subj[i]] } for(i in 1:nsubj) {theta[i]~dnorm(0,tau.theta)} for(i in 1:nyr) { beta[1,i]~dnorm(0,tau.beta1[i])} for(i in 1:4){ gamma[i]~dflat() } for(j in 2:4) { beta[j,1:nyr]~car.normal(adj[],weights[],num[],tau.beta) } weights[1]<-1; adj[1]<-2; num[1]<-1; for(t in 2:(nyr-1)){ weights[2+(t-2)*2]<-1; adj[2+(t-2)*2] <- t-1; num[t]<-2 weights[3+(t-2)*2]<-1; adj[3+(t-2)*2] <- t+1; } weights[2+(nyr-2)*2]<-1; adj[2+(nyr-2)*2]<-nyr-1; num[nyr]<-1 tausq~dgamma(0.01, 0.01) tau.beta~dgamma(0.01,0.01) tau.theta~dgamma(.01,.01) tau.beta1[1]~dgamma(19.53, 3.125) tau.beta1[2]~dgamma(19.09, 3.09) tau.beta1[3]~dgamma(17.05, 2.95) tau.beta1[4]~dgamma(16.41, 2.865) tau.beta1[5]~dgamma(15.73, 2.805) tau.beta1[6]~dgamma(15.34, 2.77) for(i in 1:nyr){ b[1,i]<-gamma[1]+beta[1,i] b[2,i]<-gamma[2]+beta[2,i] b[3,i]<-gamma[3]+beta[3,i] b[4,i]<-gamma[4]+beta[4,i] } } data list(N=16654,nsubj=7284,nyr=6, age.bar=26.80,educ.bar=13.20,gender.bar=0.146) inits list(gamma=c(0,0,0,0), beta=structure( .Data=c(1,1,1,1,1,1, .01,.01, .01,.01, .01,.01, -.4, -.4,-.38,-.3,-.34,-.29, .07, .07, .09,.09, .11,.11), .Dim=c(4,6)), tausq=1,tau.beta=1,tau.theta=1,tau.beta1=c(1,1,1,1,1,1)) list(gamma=c(1,1,1,1), beta=structure( .Data=c(1,1,1,1,1,1, 1,1,1,1,1,1, 1,1,1,1,1,1, 1,1,1,1,1,1), .Dim=c(4,6)), tausq=.1,tau.beta=.1,tau.theta=.1,tau.beta1=c(.1,.1,.1,.1,.1,.1)) list(gamma=c(-1,-1,-1,-1), beta=structure( .Data=c(-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1, -1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1, -1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1, -1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1), .Dim=c(4,6)), tausq=3,tau.beta=3,tau.theta=3,tau.beta1=c(3,3,3,3,3,3))